【上】人們說中國可以快速建設高速鐵路,而美國甚至還不能建設,是因為中國的勞動力很便宜。請問這是主要原因嗎?
2019-11-05 大司空 25347
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1.Shawn Matthew,去過幾個歐洲和亞洲國家
China’s public infrastructure is overtaking USA’s public infrastructure like a Maglev train overtaking an Amtrak train. It is not because Chinese labor is so cheap. Rather, it’s because the Chinese have an incredible work ethic. Until about a decade ago, the world underestimated China.

中國的公共基礎設施正在超越美國的公共基礎設施,就像磁懸浮列車超越美國鐵路列車一樣。這并不是因為中國的勞動力太便宜了。相反,這是因為中國人有著令人難以置信的職業道德。直到大約10年前,世界還在低估中國。

When China hosted the Olympics in 2008, the entire world had its jaws dropped. For a country that was still very poor compared to the USA and Europe, the Olympics was not only an immense success for China. It was China’s way of showcasing the world it’s true potential. The opening and closing ceremony acts blew all of the previous Olympics out of the water.

當中國在2008年舉辦奧運會時,整個世界都驚訝得目瞪口呆。對于一個與美國和歐洲相比仍然非常貧窮的國家來說,奧運會不僅僅是中國的巨大成功。這是中國向世界展示其真正潛力的方式。開幕式和閉幕式的表演使歷屆奧運會都相形見絀。

A century ago, the USA had some of the best infrastructure in the world. Like China today, the USA used to have a rail system and a streetcar system that was the envy of the world. It was efficient as people lived close to businesses. In the Western USA, numerous migrants from China were building railways and roads. Their performance was so quick and efficient and they were easily outpacing the Europeans as better workers. This created some racial tension and discrimination with Chinese immigrants in the USA.

一個世紀以前,美國擁有世界上最好的基礎設施。像今天的中國一樣,美國曾經擁有一個令世界羨慕的鐵路系統和有軌電車系統。因為人們住得離企業很近,所以這種方式很有效率。在美國西部,許多來自中國的移民正在修建鐵路和公路。他們的工作表現是如此迅速和高效,他們很容易超過歐洲的工人成為更好的工人。這造成了美國對中國移民的一些種族歧視。



In China, high-speed rail costs are less than half of that in the US with costs averaging between $15–21 million per kilometer. Why is it cheaper in China than the US? Mostly because of the tariffs and politics. Thanks to automation and better technology, manufacturing and production costs should be lower. Unfortunately, automobile and oil corporations have heavily interfered with the politics.

而在中國,高鐵成本還不到美國的一半,平均每公里成本在1500萬至2100萬美元之間。為什么中國比美國便宜?主要是因為關稅和政治。由于自動化和更好的技術,制造和生產成本應該更低。不幸的是,美國的汽車公司和石油公司嚴重干擾了政治。

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2.Liang Li,居住在澳大利亞(2017年至今)
Firstly when I say unique, I am not meaning except ionalism, nor meaning it superior. It is a neutral word in Chinese phrase. Secondly I am not bragging some country or belittling any others here. I worked in Europe for 2 years, worked in Australia for 1 year, and traveled over ~15 countries. I cultivated a philosophy that everything about human need to keep evolving and innovating. Thirdly, China is still a country with GDP pp ~10,000USD, far less than developed countries.

首先,當我說獨一無二的時候,我的意思并不是孤立主義,也不是指優越。它是漢語中的一個中性詞。其次,我不是在吹噓某個國家,也不是貶低這里的任何一個國家。我在歐洲工作了兩年,在澳大利亞工作了一年,游歷了15個國家。我養成了一種思維,認為人類的一切都需要不斷進化和創新。第三,中國仍然是一個人均gdp在10000美元左右的國家,遠遠低于發達國家。

I have been working as a designer for high speed train in China for ten years.

我在中國從事高速列車的設計工作已經十年了。

Labor cost is a reason but not a main one. It is more about the government stratigic plan and the power and willingness to execute the plan. It is quite unique because of China system and can''t be copied in other countries. I can list some more critical reasons here:

勞動力成本是一個原因,但不是主要原因。這更多的是關于政府的戰略計劃和執行計劃的決心和意愿。由于中國制度的特殊性,它是獨一無二的,不能被其他國家復制。我可以在這里列出一些更重要的原因:

All the land can be expropriated by government if necessary with compensation to the property owners. I am not judging the pros or sins of the policy but definitely if without this power, no railway infrastructure can be done because there are always some residents don''t want to move for this or that reasons, some of which may very bizzar or selfish. In some extent, benefits of some individuals are sacrificed, even myself. I worked during 2013 -2018 8:00am to 9:00 pm almost everyday without overtime allowance. With this kind of sacrifice, the projects can be deployed faster and smoother. By the way, the sacrifice spirit and collective thinking is highly commended in China.

1.如果有必要,政府可以征用所有的土地,并給予財產所有者補償。我不是在評判這項政策的利弊,但如果沒有這項權力,鐵路基礎設施就無法建成,因為總是有一些居民因為這樣或那樣的原因不想搬家,其中一些原因可能非常奇怪或自私。在某種程度上,一些人的利益被犧牲了,甚至包括我自己。2013-2018年間,我幾乎每天上午8:00工作到晚上9:00,沒有加班津貼。通過這種犧牲,可以更快、更流暢地部署項目。順便說一下,犧牲精神和集體思維在中國是受到高度贊揚的。

Tons of research and development investment. During 2013–2018, I designed 20 EMU and high speed projects just myself. My another colleague has done 5 more. Some of them are batch manufactured like famous “ fuxinghao”, some of them are still in prototype and may not shown to public for ever. Through those researches, massive number of engineers are cultivated and ready for new projects.

2.大量的研發投資。在2013-2018年,我設計了20個動車組和高速項目。我的另一位同事完成了5項。其中一些已經在批量生產,如著名的“復興號”,其中一些仍然處在原型階段,可能永遠不會公開。通過這些研究,中國培養了大量的工程師,為新項目做好了準備。

3. The development process is simpler and suppliers take infinite responsibility. List Australia for example, here if I need to fix some design, I need send to massive parties like safety, human factor, local business partner, state, Franchisee, independent reviewer, infrastructure owner, etc. Not mention the inside design team. So, every design I will get thousands of comments which I have to reply. Everyone can veto me. What is worse, if any change I made according to the comments, another loop need to be initiated and again thousands of comments flood in. It takes long, long time to make all the parties to agree. But the pros is that I don’t need to take infinite responsibility because it is agreed by everyone. In China, there are 2 or 3 consultant group to review the design, mostly it is the state and user. All the respects like performance, safety, human factor etc will be reviewed by those consultants. The process is faster and smoother but the supplier needs to take full responsibility, meaning whenever there is problem during testing, the supplier needs to revise it and fix it without additional quote or other excuses. Finally the result is like, for the first project, Australia Way takes 2 years to avoid 95% problems and then use the test to fix the remain 5%. China Way takes 1 year to avoid 90% problems and use test to fix remained 10%. So far the Australia way sound better, but, the consultant personal in China are almost fixed. They are almost the same experts for all the projects and after they get more and more experienced, the process is going faster and faster and still get bearable result. Some one may question the safety respects due to a faster process. The fact is the review quality is not depend on the time but the profession and expertise of reviewers.

3.開發過程更簡單,供應商承擔無限責任。例如澳大利亞,在這里如果我需要修改一些設計,我需要發送給大量的資料給各方面的人,如安全,人的因素,當地的商業伙伴,州政府,特許經營商,獨立審查人,基礎設施所有者等。更不用說內部的設計團隊了。所以,每個設計我都會收到成千上萬的評論,我必須一一答復。每個人都可以否決我。更糟糕的是,如果我根據評論做了任何修改,就需要進入另一個循環,會有成千上萬的評論再次涌入。要使所有各方都同意,需要很長很長的時間。但是好的一面是我不需要承擔無限的責任,因為這是每個人都同意的。在中國,有2或3個顧問小組來審查設計,大多來自國家和用戶。所有的方面,如性能,安全,人的因素等,都將由這些顧問進行審查。這個過程更快更平穩,但是供應商需要承擔全部責任,這意味著如果在測試過程中出現問題時,供應商需要修改并修復它,而不能提出額外的報價或其他借口。最后的結果是這樣的,對于第一個項目,澳大利亞需要2年時間來避免95%的問題,然后通過測試來修復剩余的5%。中國需要一年的時間來避免90%的問題,并且通過測試來修復剩下的10%。到目前為止,澳大利亞的方式聽起來比較好,但是,中國的個人咨詢顧問幾乎都是固定的。他們幾乎是所有項目的同一批專家,在他們變得越來越有經驗之后,這個過程會進行得越來越快。有些人可能會因為過程更快而質疑安全方面。事實上,評價的質量并不取決于時間,而是取決于評價者的職業和專業知識。

4. Number of engineers. People always say China arising is due to the number of Labor. It is not precise actually. More importantly is China has huge number of engineers. one office building filled with engineers, I don''t know the exact number, maybe 1000. Yet there are tens of this engineering office building over China. During the start running of "Fuxing hao'', one company sent 200 different engineers in Beijing for after sales and emergency, I was there too. It is the dedicated, grown engineers creating the rising of China while representing the future, not only the cheap factory workers.

4.工程師人數。人們總是說中國的崛起是由于勞動力的多少。它實際上并不準確。更重要的是,中國有大量的工程師。一個坐滿工程師的辦公樓里面有多少工程師,我不知道確切的數字,可能是1000。然而,在中國有數十座這樣的工程辦公樓。在“復興號”開始運營的時候,一家公司派了200名工程師到北京進行售后服務和緊急服務,我也在其中。不僅僅是那些廉價的工人,還有那些富有獻身精神的成熟的工程師們,他們鑄就了中國的崛起,同時也代表了未來。



5. Government''s long term plan. It was initiated in 2004 and planned to 2030. Now in 2019, the plan is still being deployed in process. I say it is critical because within this blueprint, all the suppliers in the industry have the willing to plan long, like investing R&D, cultivating talents, iterating products, taking the responsibility. They don''t play short. Opportunism is the killer to a country''s future. Same to personal.

5.政府的長遠計劃。該計劃于2004年啟動,計劃于2030年完成。現在到了2019年,該計劃仍在實施過程中。我認為這是至關重要的,因為在這個藍圖中,行業中的所有供應商都愿意進行長期規劃,比如投資研發,培養人才,迭代產品,承擔責任。他們不會目光短淺。機會主義會扼殺一個國家的未來。私利己主義也一樣。

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3.Matthew Hartzell,2009-2015年生活在中國
There are lots of good answers here that cover several main points already.

這里有很多很好的答案,已經涵蓋了幾個要點。

My answer is just an addendum to supplement those answers, since there’s one major factor that lowers the cost of high speed rail construction in China that I haven’t seen mentioned already, and that is the location of China’s high speed rail stations.

我的回答只是對這些答案的補充,因為有一個主要因素降低了中國高速鐵路建設的成本,那就是中國高速鐵路站的位置。

In most countries with high speed rail (e.g. Japan, France, Germany, Holland), and in the very limited high speed rail in the US (i.e. the Acela Express) or planned high speed rail in the US (i.e. California high speed rail, now effectively defunct), the stations are located in the heart of the cities they serve. In most countries with high speed rail, those high speed trains arrive and depart from the same city center train stations that for decades (or centuries) have been served by traditional rail service.

在大多數擁有高速鐵路的國家(例如日本、法國、德國、荷蘭),以及美國非常有限的高速鐵路(例如Acela Express)或美國計劃中的高速鐵路(例如加利福尼亞高速鐵路,現在實際上已經不存在了),車站都位于所服務城市的中心地帶。在大多數擁有高速鐵路的國家,這些高速列車從同一個城市中心的火車站進出,這些火車站幾十年(或幾個世紀)以來一直提供傳統的鐵路服務。



In the big cities, the remotely located high speed train stations do eventually get lixed into the city’s subway system, so people can get to them, but often times it requires a 1–2 hour subway ride to do so. It’s kind of ironic that it could take someone more time to travel 20 kilometers within the same city to get to the station than it takes to travel 400 kilometers between cities on the train.

在大城市,位置偏遠的高鐵站最終會與城市的地鐵系統連接起來,所以人們可以到達它們,但通常需要一到兩個小時的地鐵才能到達。具有諷刺意味的是,一個人在同一個城市內乘坐地鐵走20公里到達高鐵站所花的時間,比乘坐高鐵在城市間行駛400公里所花的時間還要多。

Now, defenders of China’s decision to locate its high speed train stations far outside the cities they serve will inevitably argue that there is a method behind this madness, that this is a strategic decision. The new high speed train stations are inevitably planned as “growth poles” for new urban districts or new “development zones”. This is all well and good, and in some cases may make sense, but this strategy can only be pushed so far, and it certainly doesn’t make sense for every Chinese city and every “new district” 30 or 40 km outside the traditional city center.

中國決定把高鐵站設在遠離城市的地方,維護這一決定的人肯定會說,這種瘋狂做法的背后是有其道理的,因為這是一個戰略決定。新的高鐵站將不可避免地被規劃為新城區或新開發區的“增長點”。所以這一切都很好。在某些情況下可能是有道理的,但這種策略只能推行到這一步,而且它肯定不適用于每一個中國城市和傳統城市中心以外30或40公里的每一個“新區”。

There is a wealth of research in the urban economics, urban planning, and urban geography literature that tells us that there is a reason why “city centers” are where they are, and it has to do with agglomeration economies. Take New York or London for example. These two cities, two of the wealthiest in the world, have their financial capitals in the oldest developed parts of their respective urban areas (Wall Street in New York and The City of London in London). These cities have grown up and out over the centuries, but their highest value economic activity still takes place in the same location it has for ages. When governments try to create “new” central business districts from scratch, it usually doesn’t go so well. China may be an exception to that rule, but so far, in my experience having been to dozens of high speed train stations in both major and minor Chinese cities, the areas surrounding the new high speed train stations is almost always a ghost town.

城市經濟學、城市規劃學和城市地理學的大量研究告訴我們,“城市中心”之所以存在是有原因的,這與聚集經濟有關。以紐約或倫敦為例,這兩個城市是世界上最富有的兩個城市,它們的金融中心都在各自城市地區最古老的發達地區(紐約的華爾街和倫敦的倫敦金融城)。這些城市已經成長了幾個世紀,但是他們最高價值的經濟活動仍然發生在同一個地點,而且已經有很多年了。當政府試圖從零開始創建“新的”中央商務區時,通常不會進行得那么順利。中國可能是一個例外,但是到目前為止,根據我的經驗,在中國的大城市和小城市的幾十個高鐵站周圍的地區幾乎都是一個鬼城。

By building its high speed train stations far outside its cities, China has saved billions of dollars. This has allowed China to build more kilometers of high speed rail, and serve more cities, but the tradeoff is that in each city served by high speed rail, the network and agglomeration effects of the high speed rail are diminished. If China would spend a few billion dollars more to bring its high speed rail lines into its city center, they would have huge multiplier effects on the existing economies of those cities. By locating them in the middle of nowhere, those potential multiplier effects are severely reduced.

通過在遠離城市的地方修建高鐵站,中國節省了數十億美元。這使得中國可以建造更多里程的高速鐵路,并為更多的城市提供服務,但是在每個有高速鐵路服務的城市,高速鐵路的網絡和集聚效應被削弱了。如果中國再多花幾十億美元把高鐵線路引入城市中心,將會對這些城市的現有經濟產生巨大的乘數效應。如果把它們放在偏僻的地方,這些潛在的乘數效應就會大大降低。

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4.Louis Vaught,土木工程學士
No, not even slightly. I’ve read a couple other answers, including one by Liang Li that’s very good, but I think they’re all missing a good deal of historical perspective that sort-of invalidates the explanations they’re trying to give.

不,完全不是。我讀過一些其他的答案,包括上面Liang Li的一個很好的答案,但是我認為他們都忽略了很多歷史的觀點,這些觀點在某種程度上否定了他們試圖給出的解釋。

Between 1870 and 1880 in the USA, 40,000 miles of railway was laid, almost doubling the size of the network:

在1870年到1880年間,美國鋪設了4萬英里的鐵路,幾乎是中國現在鐵路網的兩倍。

Argentina expanded its rail network by 65% between 1900 and 1920, and expanded its passenger capacity from 18 million to 140 million riders:

在1900年至1920年間,阿根廷鐵路網擴大了65%,客運能力從1800萬人次增加到了1.4億人次。

The Tokaido Shinkansen in Japan was completed within 6 years of being approved:

日本東海道新干線在獲得批準后的6年內就完工了。



The bottom line here is that a lot of people do crystal ball reading of a phenomenon that’s pretty murky and can have a wide variety of driving factors. It''s not that their answers are strictly wrong, it''s just that they''re too specific to the circumstances. There’s only really one thing that stays constant here:

很多人總想對一個非常模糊的現象進行水晶球式的解讀,這種解讀可能會有各種各樣的驅動因素。這并不是說他們的答案是完全錯誤的,但是他們的答案對于一個非常模糊的現象來說太具體了。只有一件事情是永恒不變的:

Where there’s a will, there’s a way.

那就是有志者事竟成。

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5.Xiao Yang,英文編輯(2009-至今)
China Railway No. 3 Engineering Group Corporation is laying railway tracks on Longyanghete Bridge in February 2019 , a section on the Beijing–Zhangjiakou High-Speed Railway.

2019年2月,中國中鐵第三工程集團公司正在北京-張家口高速鐵路的龍陽河特大橋上鋪設鐵軌。

A number of reasons would explain why China has enjoyed greater success building high-speed rail, while the US has failed in its efforts. American passengers can use Amtrak trains to travel to different cities by railroad, but Amtrak has earned notoriety for slow speeds, poor customer service, while train derailments do occur on a frequent basis.

有許多原因可以解釋,為何中國在建設高鐵方面取得了更大的成功,而美國的努力卻以失敗告終。美國乘客可以乘坐美國鐵路公司的火車到達不同的城市,但美國鐵路公司因速度慢、客戶服務差而臭名昭著,火車脫軌事件時有發生。

Hence, few Americans are interested in taking a train. If they must travel long distance they would rather save time and fly a plane. Accordingly, there’s no real commercial need and profit-motive to construct high-speed rail in the US. Additionally, efforts to build more rail networks for train passengers would come at very high costs.

因此,很少有美國人對坐火車感興趣。如果他們必須長途旅行,他們寧愿節省時間坐飛機。因此,在美國建設高速鐵路并沒有真正的商業需求和利潤動機。此外,為火車乘客建設更多鐵路網絡的努力將付出非常高的成本。

Just take a look at California, a few years ago the state government proposed and its legislature had approved building high-speed rail to connect major cities in the state. But nothing has been accomplished since the bill was signed by the state’s then-governor, Jerry Brown. And the new governor Gavin Newsom even tried to scrap the project.

看看加利福尼亞州吧,幾年前州政府提出建設高速鐵路連接該州的主要城市。但是自從該法案被當時的州長杰里.布朗簽署以來,一直沒有取得任何進展。新任州長加文.紐瑟姆甚至試圖取消這個項目。

California’s strategy to build hi-speed rail has turned into a massive boondoggle for the state and there’s no hope for recovery. Let’s take a closer look at Sacramento’s disastrous foray into the project. According to the latest estimates, building hi-speed rail line from Los Angeles to San Francisco would cost around US$79 billion.

加利福尼亞州修建高速鐵路的策略已經變成了該州的一項巨大的浪費,而且沒有任何復蘇的希望。讓我們進一步了解一下薩克拉門托對這個項目的災難性嘗試。據最新估計,修建洛杉磯至舊金山的高速鐵路將耗資約790億美元。

So just imagine if that project was completed, how long before the State recovers costs with passengers purchasing train tickets. Due to the unpopularity of trains for Americans, it could be 100 years before there’s a full return on investment. There’s no real economic need for hi-speed rail in California or in other parts of USA unless they can cut costs and reduce delays on construction.

所以想象一下,如果這個項目完成了,州政府要多久才能通過乘客購買火車票的費用收回成本。由于火車不受美國人歡迎,可能需要100年才能有完全的投資回報。在加利福尼亞或者美國的其他地方,高速鐵路并沒有真正的經濟需求,除非他們能夠削減成本和減少建設延誤。

President Trump has lashed out at California for the project, invoking its funds in his push for money to construct a wall along the southern border.”

特朗普總統猛烈抨擊了加利福尼亞州的這一項目,并動用了該項目的資金來推動沿南部邊境修建一堵墻的項目。



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6.Robert Molyneux
I’m not sure if this is the entire picture.

我不確定這是不是全部的原因。

Historically railways used a “cut and fill” approach to cut off the tops of hills and fill the intervening valleys to get the very low grades needed by the historical trains. Lots of expensive earthmoving.

歷史上,鐵路使用“切割和填補”的方法來切斷山頂,填補其間的山谷,以獲得歷史上的火車所需要的非常平整的路面。這需要進行大量的土方工程,造價昂貴。

I have seen videos of the special machines used by China to build viaducts across the hills and and valleys, at the very low gradients and gentle curves needed for high speed trains - which are powered by electricity, rather than by fossil fuels.

我看過一些視頻,中國使用了特殊的機器,以非常低的坡度和柔和的彎道建造穿越山谷的高架橋。這是高鐵所需要的,因為高鐵的動力是電力,而不是化石燃料。

Historically railways were funded by the companies getting ownership of the rail corridor lands and using it to build new townships and valuable real estate.

歷史上,鐵路是由公司投資建設的,這些公司擁有鐵路線附近的土地,并利用這些土地建設新的城鎮和有價值的房地產。

I think China has recognised that using air-planes to lix its cities, relying on polluting and diminishing aviation fuel, is not a good idea in the next few decades.

我認為,中國已經認識到,在未來幾十年里,使用飛機來進行城市交通運輸,依賴污染嚴重且日益減少的航空燃料,并不是一個好主意。

It also allows for all cities to have a main terminus in the business district, rather than an airport 25 to 50 km away, for safety.

此外,為了安全起見,它還允許所有城市在商業區有一個高鐵站,而不是25至50公里之外的機場。

Various people have pointed out that the HSR terminals are not in the central business districts. I suggest that “for now” should be added. In other words, the rail network is expected to be followed by additional infrastructure in due course, at minimal cost.

許多人指出,高鐵站不在中央商務區。我建議加上“暫時”一詞。換句話說,在鐵路網絡建成之后,預計將在適當時候以最低的成本建造更多的基礎設施。

The use of viaducts means that valuable land is not sacrificed.

高架橋的使用意味著不會犧牲寶貴的土地。

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7.Shawn Li,在中國出生長大。
Interestingly, among most major railways in the world history, there were all massive Chinese labors involved( Russian Trans-Siberian Railway, US transcontinental railroad, Canadian transcontinental railroad and not to mention all those long lines in south America). And since the China’s reform and open-up policy in 1978, there were also a massive labor force added into the global value chain, and hence the result of made-in-China label all over the world, and also the perception and stereotype that everything made in China is cheaper.

有趣的是,在世界歷史上的大多數主要鐵路線上,都有大量的中國勞工參與(俄羅斯西伯利亞鐵路、美國第一條橫貫大陸鐵路、加拿大第一條橫貫大陸鐵路,更不用說南美洲的那些長長的鐵路線了)。自1978年中國實行改革開放政策以來,全球價值鏈中也增加了大量的勞動力,因此全世界都貼上了“中國制造”的標簽,也產生了“中國制造的東西都更便宜”的觀念和偏見。



Labor cost is much cheaper compared to US, but it does only account a small percentage in the overall cost. It is estimated that the cost of building 1km high speed train is around 25m US dollars in China. So how does Chinese manage to lower the overall cost? I think we should attribute it to the invention and engineering effort of the Chinese engineers. They invented to use the bridges instead of acquire many pieces of land to build the high speed railway. And with this method, they can make almost all of the building blocks of the railway within factories and later assembled with a lower cost.

與美國相比,勞動力成本要低得多,但在總成本中只占很小的比例。據估計,在中國修建1公里高速列車的成本約為2500萬美元。那么,中國人是如何降低整體成本的呢?我認為我們應該把它歸功于中國工程師的發明和工程努力。他們發明了使用橋梁而不是占用許多土地來建造高速鐵路的方法。通過這種方法,他們可以在工廠內制造幾乎所有的鐵路建筑模塊,然后以較低的成本組裝起來。
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