美國應該從中國的歷史中學到什么經驗教訓?
2019-11-07 回復獎勵 29662
原文地址
原文地址:https://www.quora.com/What-lessons-should-Americans-draw-from-Chinas-history
正文翻譯
原創翻譯:龍騰網 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻譯:回復獎勵 轉載請注明出處

What lessons should Americans draw from China''s history?

美國應該從中國的歷史中學到什么經驗教訓?


評論翻譯
原創翻譯:龍騰網 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻譯:回復獎勵 轉載請注明出處

Feng Xian, former Research Associate at Eurasian Center (2017-2018)
One example is good enough:
Since the Anshi rebellion, the Tang Dynasty experienced a strategic contraction due to the increasing external threat from the Tibetan Empire, Khitan Confederation, Nanzhao country. The Tang Dynasty hence formed a complex relationship with the military zones and legions. On the one hand, the Tang government needed the military zones and legions to confront the external threats. On the other hand, the unreasonable annual salaries and expensive rewards to earn the loyalty of those often disobeyed professional soldiers had become a tremendous financial burden for the central government.
(The soldiers during the period of the mid Tang Dynasty and Five Dynasties Ten Kingdom were known for disobedience, arrogance, aggression. The armors, artifacts and paintings in this period vividly captured the military class’s characteristics and behaviors).
Nowadays, we see a similar trend in the US. Trump is pushing for a strategically global contraction due to the decline of the US hegemony in contrast with the rise of foreign powers (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Turkey, India…). The US is experiencing a great transformation from a universal empire into a nationalist state. However, Trump had to announce a huge increase in the defense budget, including both upgrading & purchasing weapons and increasing the salary of soldiers.
This seems to be controversial and could be interpreted by the liberals as if Trump is going mad once again. Nevertheless, this reflects not Trump’s insanity or “China’s threat” but the political and economic reality of the US.
The reality is American political leaders must earn the support and loyalty of the increasingly influential military faction and class (and the corporate behind). The global Empire with the accumulated history, internal and external interests, has made the military a huge profit craving industry and popularised group which, in my opinion, is strong enough to make the President or any politician get shot by a veteran with “mental issues”. On the other hand, the US’s financial hegemony and “mandate of heaven or manifest destiny”, since manufacturing is gone, are built upon the military hegemony. The US needs the military to preserve its hegemony but the ecosystem of that service and industry do not come for free.
Hence, the US is facing the same dilemma the Tang did with regard to the military faction and class. Soon and later, once the US economy and the government’s budget cannot support that huge spending, the structural conflict would erupt. How to deal with them would be a difficult task for Trump and futural leaders. The good news is at least for now Trump can fire John Bolton and the mad dog when he feels the gap of security policies.
While it is true that one happened in the 8th- 9th centuries, another 2019, there shouldn’t be the discredit to the former as if the experience and lesson are useless. The Tang Dynasty also had a carefully designed and sophisticated bureaucracy, law, monitor, check and balance to restrain the army, generals and soldiers. It was not the institution but obedience to the rule and institution, triggered by internal corruption and external accumulations and environment, went wrong.
The US military already has that trend. The US military not only has a close relationship with the arms industry and lobbyists but experience also a tremendous level of internal corruption. The loose punishment of the Courts-martial on war crime, corruption and sexual assaults of American soldiers also show the institution does not always function as the institutionalism and military nationalization promised (and imagine how will that look like in 10 years later?).
After all, if the institution can magically solve all the problems, then Liberia and Philippines that duplicated the American political system 70 or less than 200 years ago should become developed countries already rather than struggle with poverty or the civil war.
When the military is so capitalized, structurally speaking soldiers’ loyalty and discipline in the long run are questionable. To prepare for the future, I recommend the American scholars and politicians to study the history of the mid-late Tang Dynasty and the period of the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms, immediately.

應該吸取的經驗教訓是:
自安史之亂以來,由于吐蕃帝國,契丹聯盟以及南詔國等外部威脅的持續加劇,使得唐朝經歷了一次戰略收縮。因此,唐朝與軍區以及軍團形成了復雜的關系。一方面,唐朝政府需要軍區和軍團來對抗外部威脅。另一方面,這些專業士兵相當不服從,所以為了獲得他們的忠誠,唐朝政府必須向他們提供不合理的薪水和昂貴的獎勵,這就給唐朝中央政府帶來了巨大的經濟負擔。

(唐朝中期和五代十國期間的士兵以不服從,自大和好斗而聞名。這個時期的盔甲,人工制品和繪畫生動體現了軍人階級的特征和行為)。
如今,美國出現了類似的趨勢。相比于其他國家的崛起(中國,俄羅斯,伊朗,朝鮮,土耳其,印度等等),美國的全球霸主地位在衰退,所以美國的川普在推行全球性的戰略收縮。美國正從一個全球帝國向一個民族主義的國家轉變。然而,川普不得不提升美國的軍費,包括升級和購買武器,以及增加士兵的工資。



Jevin Liu
The United States cannot print money willy nilly either. If they did, they would increase the supply of money, generating inflation, which decreases trust in the currency. Thus, less people demand it and thus its value goes down. It’s a vicious cycle of inflation.

美國也無法隨意的印刷紙幣,如果美國這么做了,那么貨幣供應會增加,導致通脹,從而降低美元的信任度。那么人們就會更少使用美元,美元價值就會下降。這是通脹的惡性循環。

Jansen Junaedi
He is not talking about the money, but budget allocations and its political impact.

他說的不是金錢本身,而是預算分配及其所產生的政治影響。

Peng XiangPing
Tang Dynasty last about 280 years. It was one of the golden era of Chinese history. Now PRC is trying to return to that level of success in 21st century.

唐朝持續了大約280年。是中國歷史上的黃金時期。現在中國也想回歸到那個時候的成功水平。

Jansen Junaedi
This looks similar to Late Roman Empire don’t you think?

這看起來很像羅馬帝國后期,不是嗎?
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